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GG Masters Overlay Edition Might Actually Make $10m Guarantee

Jonathan
03 Apr 2024
Jonathan Raab 03 Apr 2024
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  • GG Masters Overlay Edition starts this Sunday
  • Guarantee of $10m might actually be met
  • Will GG Poker make a late surprise increase to the guarantee?
The GG Masters Overlay Edition is a special edition of GG Poker’s flagship GG Masters Tournament. Its name refers to a deliberate attempt by the operator to have an overlay (miss the guarantee) in this huge online poker tournament, which costs just $150 to enter, but carries a $10m guaranteed prize pool.

GG Poker Has Surprisingly Not Increased the Guarantee

For the 4th anniversary of the flagship GG Masters tournament, operator GG Poker is once again running what it describes as an 'Overlay Edition.' This is not the first time that GG has attempted this feat and they have always been successful...at missing the guarantee.  Somewhat surprisingly, this is the first time that they have not upped the guaranteed prize pool.

2022

In 2022 the GG Masters Overlay edition had a $5m guarantee. In total there were 33,133 entries, creating a prize pool of $4,572,354, ensuring an overlay of $427,646. Even when tournament fees of just under $400,000 were taken into account, this still represented an overlay.

2023

Despite missing in 2022, in 2023 the guarantee was doubled to $10m and once again, the collected prize pool fell short of the assured amount. An astonishing 64,622 players participated, creating a prize pool of $8,917,836, resulting in a staggering overlay of $1,082,164!

Will it miss it again in 2024?

GG Poker seems to think so, otherwise they would surely have raised the guarantee further, but all the evidence suggests that they may actually be on course to not only meet the guarantee this year, but smash it!

The Evidence

  • The site has experienced huge growth over the last few years and this does not appear to have slowed down in the last 12 months.
  • GG Poker now has a global market share that is reportedly in excess of 70%. 
  • The tournament "only just" missed the guarantee last year, despite the overlay being over $1m.
  • In previous years Daniel Negreanu has offered to shave off beard or add money to the prize pool if it meets its guarantee, but there's no such offer from the GG sponsored pro this year.
  • Poker is booming

What Could Actually Be Happenning?

Such dominance and continued growth over the last year makes the decision to stick at $10m look like one of three things is actually in play:

1. GG Poker has miscalculated and actually believes this a is a sure fire missed guarantee.
2. GG Poker execs have experienced shrinking cahones and simply don’t want to risk it.
3. GG Poker is fully aware that this guarantee is likely to be smashed and is going to step in at the last minute and announce that it is upping it to $12m/$12.5m.

We don’t think they’d miscalculate this and we’re also convinced that they still enjoy risk, so it would come as no surprise if there’s a late announcement just before the tournament gets underway, or even after the day 1s have started. It would after all be an embarrassing predicament for GG to find itself in: meeting the guarantee in a tournament billed as almost certainly overlaying.

How to Get Involved

GGMasters Overlay Edition satellites run daily, with freerolls and buy-ins starting from just $0.25, providing all players with the opportunity to secure a seat and target a huge payout. The first of nine starting days takes place on Sunday 18th February.

Only registered players can enter the GGPoker GGMasters Overlay Edition. If you are yet to register, use the GGPoker promo code WIRED when joining the world's biggest poker room to get started with a welcome bonus worth $600.

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